LONDON (Labour Buzz) - 2019 was the year that the red wall came tumbling down, but 2020 may be the year that it was rebuilt and surprisingly quickly come to think of it. That’s the suggestion from a new poll reported by Channel 4 News.
According to a survey from JL Partners Conservatives have already lost much of the support they won in 2019. Polling across so called red wall constituencies gave Labour an impressive six-point advantage (47% to 41%). The study suggests the Conservatives would lose 36 of the 45 seats they won in 2019 which would come close to wiping out their majority.
So, has Starmer cracked the red wall conundrum? The answer to that is ‘kinda’, but not necessarily in the way he expected.
Since becoming leader Starmer has made it his mission to win back those voters from Labour’s former heartlands. So far that’s meant saying nothing about Brexit or anything remotely liberal about immigration, trans rights or defence. It’s why he resisted opposing the spy cops bill and the overseas operation bill and is currently struggling to decide whether to vote for Johnson’s Brexit deal, if and when one appears.
Yesterday’s poll suggests it’s working. Not only is Labour back in the lead in its former Northern heartland, but Starmer’s popularity is higher there than in the rest of the country. He currently enjoyed a personality rating of +18% compared to Johnson’s -3%.
However, before we all pop open the champagne, a word of warning. Labour’s gains come largely through Tory mismanagement of the pandemic. According to respondents, their mixed messaging on COVID 19 and Dominic Cummings’ trip to Barnard Castle are among the top reasons for voters making the switch. The phrase one rule for us, one rule for them keeps cropping up.
Starmer may also not like figures suggesting Rishi Sunak remains the most popular politician, suggesting gains could run into reverse if the Conservatives make a change at the top.
Nevertheless, this is good news for Labour. Within a year, they’ve clawed back many of the losses in 2019 and, with many polls showing them ahead nationally, there is reason for cheer.
The Tories haven’t helped their own prospects up north. From the Cummings epic eyesight test to the battle over Manchester’s restrictions, they’ve treated their new northern voters with disdain. With new measures of support only coming into play when London moved into tier 2 lockdown, they’ve done nothing to dispel the notion that their attention tends to fade once things move out of the home counties.
Johnson might have believed he could get away with it, as long as he kept shouting about Brexit and occasionally mumbled something about Northern powerhouses. This new poll shows he might have made a critical mistake.
(Written by Tom Cropper, Edited by Klaudia Fior)